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Poll: Indiana U.S. Senate Race A Dead Heat 

Posted On November 01, 2016

By Mike Perleberg

bayh-young-brenton-2-10192016

Indiana U.S. Senate candidates (left to right) Evan Bayh, Todd Young, Lucy Brenton. Photos by Michael Conroy, The Associated Press.

(Undated) – The race for Indiana’s open seat in the U.S. Senate is tightening, the latest poll shows.

A Monmouth University poll out Monday gives 45 percent a piece to Democratic former senator and governor Evan Bayh and Republican congressman Todd Young. The poll was conducted October 27th through 30th among 402 likely Indiana voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

“Evan Bayh had the lead for almost the entire way up until a couple weeks ago and has now dropped to a dead tie,” says pollster Patrick Murray.

Five percent of the polled citizens who were categorized as undecided could ultimately decide the race. Libertarian Lucy Brenton has four percent support.

Bayh had led in Monmouth polls by at least six percent in August and mid-October.

In one of the nation’s most closely-watched Senate races, Murray says Bayh is having problems with some of the connections he had after leaving Congress in 2011.  He says Friday’s news of Hillary Clinton’s new email problems will help Young get more Republican to come out and vote.

Murray believes Young is also getting some help from GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump’s popularity in Indiana. Governor Mike Pence is the Republican nominee’s vice presidential running mate.

In the presidential race, Trump holds a 50 percent to 39 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in Indiana. That’s up from a four-point Trump lead a few weeks earlier. Libertarian Gary Johnson has four percent while seven percent are undecided in who to vote for president.

In the gubernatorial race to succeed Pence in the governor’s office, Democratic former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb, 48 to 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Rex Bell garnered four percent support. Five percent were undecided just about a week until Election Day, November 8.

The six point lead is half that which belonged to Gregg in the last Monmouth poll in mid-October. Holcomb’s campaign called that poll an “outlier.”

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